Recession watch: the curve and the claims
The two US series with the best record — the yield curve and jobless claims — with the whole Treasury curve and the BLS payrolls print beside them.
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Why do Hong Kong's interest rates follow the Fed?
The Fed moved on Wednesday and Hong Kong's official rate followed within hours, by formula. The rates people borrow at answer to the peg on a slower clock.
🌏 Japan raised rates to 1.25% the day its core inflation slowed to 1.7%
Two of nine board members voted no, citing prices under 2%. The statistics bureau's own footnote shows how much the energy measures took off.
🌏 Hong Kong's base rate rose to 4.25% by formula. HSBC's rate did not
The Fed moved at 3 am Seoul time and Hong Kong's official rate followed by formula within hours. The rates people borrow at are another matter.
🌏 Japan bought 3.6% more crude and paid 58.7% more for it
Japan's August trade gap hit ¥1.11 trillion. Read the crude line twice: once as barrels, once as yen, and the price shows up in the space between.