How do you read the Fed's dot plot?
One dot per official, four times a year. Count the dots against the range in force the day they were drawn, and read the median last.
🌎 S&P 500 +1.1% the day after the hike, as jobless claims fell to 196,000
Oil and Treasury yields eased and stocks rebounded. Jobless claims fell to 196,000, and the time of year explains most of the raw drop.
🌎 3.75–4% — the Fed's first rise since 2023, and 16 of 18 dots sit above it
A 12–0 vote, the first rise since July 2023. Read the new dots against the new range: 16 of 18 officials see December's rate above it.
🌎 The 10-year yield hit 5%, a level last seen in 2007, as the Fed decides
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.00% before today's Fed decision. How to read the 2 p.m. dot plot: count the dots, not only the median.
🌎 AI shares slid into Fed week, and the VIX put a size on a normal day
An AI slowdown call from the labs themselves, Brent past $109 and a Fed expected to raise on Wednesday, plus the options market's price for a normal day.
Why does America have three inflation numbers, and which one does the Fed watch?
CPI, PCE and PPI measured the same July and printed three different rates. What each one asks, why they disagree, and which one carries the Fed's target.
🌎 CPI held at 3.4%, and the week's rate move landed at the short end
August consumer prices, Friday's rebound inside a losing week, and a Treasury curve that moved most where the Fed's next few meetings live.
🌎 Brent $101 — Wall Street's third red day, and how much of it reaches the pump
Brent closed at $101.21 on Wednesday, back above $100 for the first time since July. Crude is about half the price of a gallon, so the pump moves less.
🌎 4.474% — what America paid for three-year money, and who actually lent it
The Dow fell 628 points on Tuesday and Brent went above $100 this morning. In between, the Treasury sold $58bn of three-year notes at 4.474%.
🌎 3.4%, 3.7%, 4.7% — one July, three inflation gauges, one Fed target
Wall Street reopens with oil near six-week highs. July inflation reads 3.4% on the CPI, 3.7% on the PCE index and 4.7% on the PPI.
🌎 162,000 — the jobs number tripled the forecast; two industries made most of it
US payrolls rose 162,000 in August against about 53,000 expected, with June and July revised up 55,000. New York and Toronto are shut for Labor Day.
What is a PMI, and what does a reading of 50 actually mean?
Purchasing managers answer better, same or worse. How that becomes one number, why 50 is the line, and why the headline can hide a part below it.