Financial Literature Americas (Page 2)

How do you read the Fed's dot plot?

One dot per official, four times a year. Count the dots against the range in force the day they were drawn, and read the median last.

A calendar page with one week marked in gold beside a bar whose fall is mostly shaded gold

🌎 S&P 500 +1.1% the day after the hike, as jobless claims fell to 196,000

Oil and Treasury yields eased and stocks rebounded. Jobless claims fell to 196,000, and the time of year explains most of the raw drop.

Rows of navy dots above a gold band that has stepped up from a dashed outline below

🌎 3.75–4% — the Fed's first rise since 2023, and 16 of 18 dots sit above it

A 12–0 vote, the first rise since July 2023. Read the new dots against the new range: 16 of 18 officials see December's rate above it.

A dot plot: rows of navy dots with a gold dashed median line crossing an empty gap

🌎 The 10-year yield hit 5%, a level last seen in 2007, as the Fed decides

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.00% before today's Fed decision. How to read the 2 p.m. dot plot: count the dots, not only the median.

A tipping microchip beside a shaded range with a red bar inside it

🌎 AI shares slid into Fed week, and the VIX put a size on a normal day

An AI slowdown call from the labs themselves, Brent past $109 and a Fed expected to raise on Wednesday, plus the options market's price for a normal day.

Why does America have three inflation numbers, and which one does the Fed watch?

CPI, PCE and PPI measured the same July and printed three different rates. What each one asks, why they disagree, and which one carries the Fed's target.

Two rising curves in navy and red, further apart at the left end and converging at the right

🌎 CPI held at 3.4%, and the week's rate move landed at the short end

August consumer prices, Friday's rebound inside a losing week, and a Treasury curve that moved most where the Fed's next few meetings live.

A fuel nozzle above a large droplet divided into four bands, the bottom band about half the droplet.

🌎 Brent $101 — Wall Street's third red day, and how much of it reaches the pump

Brent closed at $101.21 on Wednesday, back above $100 for the first time since July. Crude is about half the price of a gallon, so the pump moves less.

Three flat-vector bidding paddles of descending height in navy, blue and gold, with a teal line rising behind them.

🌎 4.474% — what America paid for three-year money, and who actually lent it

The Dow fell 628 points on Tuesday and Brent went above $100 this morning. In between, the Treasury sold $58bn of three-year notes at 4.474%.

Three navy and gold bars of different heights overshooting a single dashed red target line

🌎 3.4%, 3.7%, 4.7% — one July, three inflation gauges, one Fed target

Wall Street reopens with oil near six-week highs. July inflation reads 3.4% on the CPI, 3.7% on the PCE index and 4.7% on the PPI.

A closed shutter beside a row of columns, two of them tall and marked out, one falling below the line

🌎 162,000 — the jobs number tripled the forecast; two industries made most of it

US payrolls rose 162,000 in August against about 53,000 expected, with June and July revised up 55,000. New York and Toronto are shut for Labor Day.

What is a PMI, and what does a reading of 50 actually mean?

Purchasing managers answer better, same or worse. How that becomes one number, why 50 is the line, and why the headline can hide a part below it.

Four columns above and below a horizontal line, and one outlined column standing for their average

🌎 55.4 — services grew faster; the jobs part of the same gauge shrank

The services survey rose to 55.4 on its best activity reading since 2022, while its own employment component stayed below 50. Waller hinted at a hold.

Two navy columns of different heights with a gold bracket spanning the gap between their tops, and a teal disc rising beside

🌎 2.25% — the Bank of Canada held, changed one sentence, and the loonie rose

Canada held at 2.25% a seventh time but dropped ‘remains appropriate’; the loonie rose. S&P 500 +0.5% as yields paused and ADP hiring slowed to 38,000.

Twelve bars against a navy line: four brick bars hang below it, eight teal bars stand above, the last ringed in gold

🌎 54.6 — fewer factories grew in August; oil past $90 sank the boards

ISM’s factory gauge fell to 54.6 from 55.6, an eighth month above 50; Brent rose 4.6% on new US strikes on Iran and the S&P 500 fell 0.7%.

A calendar month of teal sessions with the last day marked in red, and a rising gold line dipping at its end

🌎 S&P 500 −0.3% — a red Monday closed a green August

US–Iran strikes lifted oil; the S&P 500 fell 0.3% and the 10-year yield closed at its highest since January 2025, yet every board finished August higher.

A navy gauge whose red needle has tipped just past the halfway mark

🌎 57% — the Fed chair put prices first; a September hike became the favourite

Warsh said the Fed's focus 'should be on prices'; September hike odds went from 35% to 57%, the 2-year jumped, stocks slipped. Oil above $91 on Iran.

evergreen

What is the equal-weight S&P 500, and why does it tell a different story from the index?

Same 500 companies, 0.2% each. How the equal-weight S&P 500 shows whether a rally belonged to the market or to a few giants.

One tall teal bar rises above a row of small red bars sinking below a baseline: one stock lifted the index while most fell

🌎 S&P 500 +0.7% — one stock lifted the board; the average stock fell

Nvidia's 8.7% jump carried the S&P 500 up 0.7% while the equal-weight index fell 0.3% and ten of eleven sectors closed lower. Warsh speaks at 10 a.m. ET.

A long navy measuring bar crosses a gold dashed target line, with a small red tick just short of its end

🌎 3.7% — inflation ran a tenth hot; Nvidia guided a year ahead

PCE 3.7% beat by a tenth, core 3.3% in line, the boards closed flat. After the bell Nvidia guided $108bn and 70% growth next year. Warsh speaks Friday.

Two bars diverging from a gold baseline inside a navy card: one rising teal, one falling brick — a survey split in two

🌎 89.4 — consumers rated today better, tomorrow worse

Confidence hit a seven-month low while the 'present' half jumped; stocks rose anyway as oil and yields fell. PCE at 8:30, Nvidia after the close.

A navy semiconductor chip beside a row of shrinking bars — chip stocks led Monday's slide

🌎 Nasdaq −0.8% — chips fell hardest, two days before Nvidia reports

Chip stocks led Monday's slide ahead of Nvidia's results; a Treasury cash-account report eased yields; new sanctions on Iran, new tariffs on Canada.

Two arrows, one navy and one teal, stopped head-on at a brick wall with a gold price tag hanging from it — trade blocked in b

🌎 50% — the US–Canada trade war arrived over the weekend

Trump's 50% tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian goods took effect Saturday; Ottawa matches on 8 September. Plus a booming PMI and bitcoin's 22% week.

A yield line dips for one day in teal then climbs back in brick to its gold dashed starting level, beside a brick oil barrel

🌎 −0.9% — the relief lasted one day

Long yields climbed back, oil rose on an Iran threat, Walmart fell 9% on a sales miss, and the S&P 500 lost 0.9% — its worst day in three weeks. Decoded.

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