π 55.4 β services grew faster; the jobs part of the same gauge shrank
The services survey rose to 55.4 on its best activity reading since 2022, while its own employment component stayed below 50. Waller hinted at a hold.
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The services survey rose to 55.4 on its best activity reading since 2022, while its own employment component stayed below 50. Waller hinted at a hold.
Canada held at 2.25% a seventh time but dropped βremains appropriateβ; the loonie rose. S&P 500 +0.5% as yields paused and ADP hiring slowed to 38,000.
ISMβs factory gauge fell to 54.6 from 55.6, an eighth month above 50; Brent rose 4.6% on new US strikes on Iran and the S&P 500 fell 0.7%.
USβIran strikes lifted oil; the S&P 500 fell 0.3% and the 10-year yield closed at its highest since January 2025, yet every board finished August higher.
Warsh said the Fed's focus 'should be on prices'; September hike odds went from 35% to 57%, the 2-year jumped, stocks slipped. Oil above $91 on Iran.
Explainers
Same 500 companies, 0.2% each. How the equal-weight S&P 500 shows whether a rally belonged to the market or to a few giants.
Nvidia's 8.7% jump carried the S&P 500 up 0.7% while the equal-weight index fell 0.3% and ten of eleven sectors closed lower. Warsh speaks at 10 a.m. ET.
PCE 3.7% beat by a tenth, core 3.3% in line, the boards closed flat. After the bell Nvidia guided $108bn and 70% growth next year. Warsh speaks Friday.
Confidence hit a seven-month low while the 'present' half jumped; stocks rose anyway as oil and yields fell. PCE at 8:30, Nvidia after the close.
Chip stocks led Monday's slide ahead of Nvidia's results; a Treasury cash-account report eased yields; new sanctions on Iran, new tariffs on Canada.
Trump's 50% tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian goods took effect Saturday; Ottawa matches on 8 September. Plus a booming PMI and bitcoin's 22% week.
Long yields climbed back, oil rose on an Iran threat, Walmart fell 9% on a sales miss, and the S&P 500 lost 0.9% β its worst day in three weeks. Decoded.